مرکز منطقه ای اطلاع رسانی علوم و فناوری پژوهش انحرافات و مسائل اجتماعی 3060-821X 5 16 2026 2 1 A Review of Iran's Macro Population Policies in the "Family Protection and Youthful Population Law" بررسی سیاست‌های کلان جمعیتی در قانون حمایت از خانواده و جوانی جمعیت 1 29 fa ابراهیم شیرعلی دانشگاه تهران محمد اسکندری نسب دانشگاه تهران 2025 9 23 A Review of Iran's Macro Population Policies in the "Family Protection and Youthful Population Law"   Ebrahim Shirali<a href="#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1">*</a> Mohammad Eskandari Nasab<a href="#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2">**</a>     Given the demographic challenges facing Iran, such as declining fertility rates, delayed marriage, and an aging population, macro-level policymaking has gained significant importance. In this regard, the "Family Protection and Youthful Population Law" was enacted. This study examines various aspects of the law through a qualitative content analysis method using a conventional approach. The main objective of this research is to identify the dominant paradigm governing Iran's macro-population policies within this law and to analyze the prioritization of the family institution and the operational strategies aimed at achieving demographic goals in these documents. The findings indicate that in the studied law, the family is viewed both as an independent institution influencing social development and as a tool serving macro-population policies. Furthermore, certain contradictions and discontinuities are observed in the policies, including the simultaneous emphasis on family independence and its subordination to macro-governmental interests. Regarding operational policies, the primary focus is on financial support, facilitating youth marriage, improving welfare services, and strengthening family cultural values. However, the implementation of these policies has faced limitations and challenges. Overall, the results suggest that despite extensive efforts in drafting and promulgating this law, achieving demographic and childbearing goals requires greater policy coherence, resolution of existing conflicts, and strengthening executive mechanisms.   Keywords: Upstream documents, Population policies, Marriage and childbearing, Qualitative content analysis, social policy.   Introduction The demographic landscape of Iran has undergone a profound transformation over the past few decades, shifting from a state of high population growth to one characterized by a dramatic decline in fertility rates. This demographic transition, often described as one of the fastest in the world, has brought the country’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) below the replacement level. Concurrently, the nation faces emerging challenges such as a significant delay in the average age of marriage, an increase in celibacy, and the rapid onset of population aging. These trends pose potential threats to the country’s long-term economic sustainability, social security systems, and intergenerational support structures. In response to these alarms, the Iranian governance system has initiated a strategic paradigm shift in its macro-level policymaking. Moving away from the population control policies of the 1990s, the state has adopted a pro-natalist stance, culminating in the enactment of the "Family Protection and Youthful Population Law" in November 2021. This law represents the most comprehensive legislative effort to date, aiming to remove obstacles to marriage and childbearing through a combination of economic incentives, cultural interventions, and medical regulations. However, the mere ratification of such laws does not guarantee success. The primary problem addressing this study is the potential gap between legislative intent and sociological reality. There is a critical need to understand the underlying paradigm governing these policies: How is the "family" conceptualized in these documents? Is it viewed as an autonomous entity or a tool for statecraft? Furthermore, are the operational strategies designed in the law capable of reversing deep-seated cultural and structural trends? This study seeks to answer these questions by analyzing the content of the law and evaluating its consistency with the complexities of Iranian society. Theoretical Framework To interpret the logic behind the law, this study draws upon several demographic and economic theories. The economic theory of fertility, proposed by Gary Becker, suggests that couples make rational cost-benefit analyses regarding childbearing. From this perspective, children are viewed as "consumer goods" providing emotional utility or "production goods" providing labor and old-age security. The decline in fertility is thus attributed to the rising direct and indirect costs of raising children, particularly the "opportunity cost" for women. Consequently, state policies often focus on financial incentives to reduce these costs. However, the study also considers the "Second Demographic Transition" theory by Lesthaeghe, which argues that fertility decline in modern societies is driven more by deep cultural shifts toward individualism, self-realization, and secularization than by economics alone. Additionally, Peter McDonald’s theory of gender equity is utilized, which posits that low fertility arises from a disconnect between high gender equity in public institutions (education, workplace) and low gender equity in the private sphere (family). This theoretical triangulation allows for a critical assessment of whether the Iranian law addresses the multifaceted nature of fertility behavior or merely focuses on one dimension.   Methodology This research employs a qualitative content analysis method with a conventional approach to systematically examine the text of the "Family Protection and Youthful Population Law." This method was chosen to move beyond a superficial reading of the law and to uncover the latent themes, patterns, and contradictions embedded within the policy language. The unit of analysis is the complete text of the law, including its articles and clauses. The coding process was inductive, meaning that themes were derived directly from the data rather than being imposed by a pre-existing framework. The analysis focused on categorizing the law’s provisions into key themes such as marriage facilitation, housing support, employment incentives, medical interventions, and cultural re-engineering. Through this rigorous examination, the researchers identified the dominant discursive strategies used by the state to influence private family decisions and evaluated the coherence of these strategies against the theoretical backdrop.   Findings The content analysis of the "Family Protection and Youthful Population Law" yields complex and multifaceted findings, revealing a distinct paradigm in how the Iranian state interacts with the family institution. The findings are categorized into several critical dimensions: <ol style="text-align: left;"> <li>The analysis indicates a dual and somewhat paradoxical conceptualization of the family. On one hand, the law and upstream documents explicitly describe the family as an independent, fundamental institution essential for social development and stability. On the other hand, the detailed operational strategies reveal an instrumental view of the family, treating it primarily as a vehicle for achieving macro-demographic targets set by the state. This tension is evident in the shift from protecting family autonomy to mandating its compliance with broader governmental interests. The family is no longer just a private sanctuary but a public asset that must be managed to ensure national security and economic vitality.</li> <li>A significant portion of the law is dedicated to economic support, reflecting the influence of rational choice economic theories. The findings show that the law emphasizes providing interest-free loans (Qarz al-Hasna) for marriage, particularly incentivizing younger marriages (under 25 for men and under 23 for women) with higher loan amounts (Article 68). However, the analysis critiques this approach as insufficient. The law focuses heavily on the act of marriage itself rather than the sustainability of the marital union. While financial injections may lower the entry barrier to marriage, they do not address the long-term structural economic insecurity, inflation, and unemployment that cause young people to delay marriage. Furthermore, regarding student marriage, the law proposes the construction of dormitories and increasing housing allowances (Articles 7 & 8), but the findings suggest that students represent only a fraction of the youth population, leaving the vast majority of non-student youth with limited housing support.</li> <li>The law places a strong emphasis on encouraging larger families, specifically targeting the birth of a third child. Provisions include the allocation of state land, housing discounts, and utility subsidies (Articles 3, 4, & 18). A critical finding, however, is the conditional nature of these benefits. The law stipulates that certain incentives, such as land allocation, are only applicable in cities where the fertility rate is below 2.5. This creates a contradictory situation where families in regions with naturally higher fertility rates (often less developed areas like Sistan and Baluchestan) are excluded from state support, despite often being in greater need of economic assistance. This reveals a policy inconsistency where the law aims to increase the population but withholds support from the very segments of the population contributing most to this growth, potentially due to unstated socio-political preferences.</li> <li>One of the most distinct findings is the law’s extensive intervention in the medical and health sectors. Articles 51 through 66 mark a sharp departure from previous family planning eras. The law criminalizes or heavily restricts the distribution of free contraceptives, prohibits sterilization (vasectomy/tubectomy) without medical necessity, and imposes strict regulations on abortion. Concurrently, it mandates the expansion of infertility treatment centers and insurance coverage for infertile couples. The analysis suggests that this approach attempts to manage fertility through the "policing of the body" and restricting access to reproductive choices. While support for infertility is a positive step, the restrictive measures may lead to unintended consequences, such as a rise in unsafe illegal abortions or increased health risks for vulnerable women, without necessarily guaranteeing a sustainable increase in the birth rate.</li> <li>The findings highlight a complex approach to women’s employment. The law extends maternity leave to nine months and offers limited paternity leave, aiming to reconcile work and family life (Articles 17 & 21). It also provides telecommuting options for mothers. However, the analysis reveals a significant gap in coverage. These benefits are primarily enforceable in the public sector. For the vast majority of women working in the private sector, such mandates often translate into hiring discrimination, as private employers may view female employees as financial liabilities due to the mandated leave. Furthermore, the law promotes a traditional division of labor, implicitly encouraging women to prioritize domestic roles over professional aspirations. This contradicts the reality of highly educated Iranian women (per McDonald’s theory) who seek equity in both public and private spheres. The lack of job security guarantees for women returning from maternity leave in the private sector remains a major weakness.</li> <li>Finally, the law attempts to engineer culture through the educational system and media (Articles 28, 33). It mandates the inclusion of pro-family content in school curriculums and requires the national broadcaster (IRIB) to produce content glorifying childbearing. The findings suggest that this top-down cultural imposition ignores the deep sociological shifts toward individualism and the "quality over quantity" mindset regarding children (quality of life vs. number of children). The study finds that the law assumes cultural values can be dictated by the state, disregarding the "Second Demographic Transition" where values have shifted organically.</li> </ol>   Discussion and Conclusion The detailed analysis of the "Family Protection and Youthful Population Law" leads to the conclusion that while the Iranian state has correctly identified the demographic crisis, the chosen remedies may be palliative rather than curative. The law relies heavily on a "stimulus-response" model, assuming that financial handouts and restrictive medical regulations will automatically result in higher birth rates. The research concludes that this perspective is reductionist. It overlooks the profound structural insecurities—such as housing instability, inflation, and youth unemployment—that create a "wait-and-see" attitude among youth. Moreover, the law fails to fully address the cultural transformation of the Iranian family, where women’s autonomy and the desire for self-actualization play central roles. The contradictory nature of the policies—such as promoting family independence while heavily regulating reproductive choices, or aiming for population growth while excluding high-fertility provinces from benefits—undermines the law’s potential effectiveness. The reliance on the public sector for implementing employment benefits leaves a large portion of the workforce unprotected. Consequently, the law functions more as a set of temporary financial reliefs rather than a sustainable roadmap for demographic recovery. 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[In Persian]<a href="https://jips.nipr.ac.ir/article_134764.html">https://jips.nipr.ac.ir/article_134764.html</a>     <a href="#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1">*</a> Researcher at ACECR; Ph.D. Student in Sociology of Social-Rural Development, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. Ebrahim.Shirali@ut.ac.ir https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5063-1044 <a href="#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2">**</a>Corresponding Author: Ph.D. Student in Sociology of Social-Rural Development, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. 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